OSCE on the Line

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Published on:

2010-11-26 15:49:19

Janusz Bugajski is the holder of the Lavrentiadis Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Margarita Assenova is the Executive Director of the Institute of New Democracies, both in Washington D.C. In their coverage of the upcoming Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, they outline the major decisions for the Summit and detail the obstacles that must be ovecome.

35 years after its formation, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has reached a critical juncture. It needs to define its role in the 21st century as a soft security power that pursues democratic development among all member states. The Astana Summit on December 1-2 can help accomplish this goal and make the organization more relevant for the coming decade. However, if agreement on substantive issues is not reached, the Summit will expose the irreconcilable differences between member states on issues ranging from security to democracy.

Prior to the Summit, agreement between Moscow and the West on the two fundamental documents – a Summit Declaration and an Action Plan – has proved difficult to reach. Consequently, many experts predict that the Summit will lack substance and the OSCE faces marginalization on the world stage.

The major decisions facing the 56 heads of state and government in Astana revolve around military transparency, conventional arms control, resolving the conflicts in the Caucasus, including the Russo-Georgian dispute, and drafting a strategy for the future role of the OSCE in Afghanistan. In addition, decisions with utmost importance for the Organization will be the development of an effective crisis management mechanism and the recommitment of all member states to the OSCE’s core values, including those in the human dimension.

The Kazakh chairman-in-office believes that the significance of the Organization is on the rise. This might be wishful thinking by an ambitious chair, but the crisis in Kyrgyzstan earlier this year brought security problems close to home for Astana and underscored that more must be accomplished by the OSCE in Central Asia.

Nonetheless, the OSCE is handicapped in addressing immediate crises by the consensus principle in decision making. In addition, Russia has persistently blocked OSCE arms control mechanisms and sabotaged election monitoring missions. In December 2007, Russia suspended its observance of the Conventional Treaty in Europe (CFE) that limits the deployment of armaments in the flank areas bordering the South Caucasus. Eight months later Russia invaded Georgia.

Not surprisingly, Moscow opposes any substantive decisions at the upcoming Summit. An effective crisis management mechanism will tie Russia’s hands and could enable the OSCE to deploy fact-finding missions to crisis areas, including Russia’s North Caucasus where insurgencies are escalating. A renewed commitment to OSCE principles concerning human rights and democracy also challenges Moscow’s egregious violations of human rights. The Astana Summit will test the true nature of Moscow’s reset with the United States and Europe – whether the Kremlin’s real intentions are to promote democracy at home and respect the sovereignty of its neighbors, or if it calculates that its charm offensive toward the West can help Russia regain its sphere of influence in Eurasia.